Yulia Tymoshenko,
Ukraine's fiery prime minister, surprised her opponents in yesterday's
first round of the presidential election by doing unexpectedly well and
securing a chance of defeating the frontrunner, opposition leader
Viktor Yanukovich, in next month's run-off.
In the first
presidential election since the 2004 Orange Revolution, Mr Yanukovich
won 31 to 35 per cent of the vote, according to preliminary exit polls.
Ms Tymoshenko came second with 25 to 27 per cent, about 5 percentage
points more than had been indicated by pre-election opinion polls.
But
analysts say she is much better placed than Mr Yanukovich to win votes
from the other 16 candidates, including the pro-west president Viktor
Yushchenko, who won just 5 to 6 per cent, according to the exit polls.
If the actual gap is the same as the exit polls "Tymoshenko has a
strong chance to defeat Yanukovich", said Volodymyr Fesenko, a
political analyst.
The result leaves Ukrainian politics on a
knife-edge, with Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovich, the defeat- ed
candidate in the disputed 2004 poll, likely to battle over every vote
in the weeks before the run-off on February 7.
Ms Tymoshenko
attacked Mr Yanukovich over his big business backing, saying: "The
majority of Ukrainian voters showed they are ready to vote for
democracy, against criminal gangs and oligarchy."
The election,
which follows five years of in-fighting, is being closely watched
because of concerns about possible cheating, Ukraine's fragile economy
and its strategic location between Russia and the European Union. The
vote is also a test of democratic standards in Ukraine - an outpost of
political freedom in the former Soviet Union.
Voting yesterday
was hampered by winter weather, with voters slipping on icy streets as
they made their way to ballot stations. Allegations of electoral
misconduct surfaced, with sporadic reports of break-ins and
ballot-tampering. But Volodymyr Shapoval, head of Ukraine's central
election committee, downplayed the allegations, saying: "There will be
no extraordinary situations, the elections will take place."
International monitors will report today.
In the run-up to the
voting, the frontrunners accused each other of plotting fraud. It was
not clear if there was any substance to the claims. More than 3,000
foreign monitors were deployed, including 800 from the Organisation for
Security and Co-operation in Europe and EU states. The Committee of
Voters of Ukraine, an election watchdog, said poor planning,
administrative abuses and election law loopholes left room for abuse.
Now,
much will depend on Sergei Tigipko, a wealthy banker-politician, who
came third in yesterday's vote with just over 13 per cent, making him a
likely kingmaker. Last night Mr Tigipko said he would not support
either second round candidate.
The new president's priority will
be restoring political stability and confidence in the recession-hit
economy and resuming co-operation with the International Monetary Fund,
which has suspended a $16.4bn (ˆ11.3bn, £10bn) package.
Russia
has kept its distance but, to Moscow's satisfaction, both leading
candidates have stressed their desire to improve relations with Russia,
while sticking to EU membership plans.
The Financial Times
